EP 819 A Pollster’s Admission as to Why He (and Others) Got Things Wrong

The guest on this podcast is pretty remarkable, not only because he’s willing to say that the polling industry got things wrong, but why.  And he doesn’t exclude himself.  Yet he has enough self-awareness to admit that not knowing who, among those polled, is coming out to vote really makes this job of polling a tough game.  Even in high profile elections, like the one that just passed, nearly 40 percent of the people don’t cast a ballot.  Which forty percent is the hard part to discern.  Perhaps more important is the fact that while we categorize the electorate as either being on the blue team or the red team, more and more people on the shades of gray team and are very fluid in their voting patterns, depending upon the personalities of the candidates and the issues of the day.  How else can we explain the oscillation of an electorate that goes from George W. Bush to Barack Obama to Donald Trump to Joe Biden and back to Trump.  Anti-incumbent fervor is rampant in this country and around the world.  A key ingredient in all of this is the growing sector of the voting public that describes itself as independent.  So, when asked to make predictions during election season, our guest always gives the same answer. Whoever wins the independents.  Brett Loyd, CEO of the nonpartisan Bullfinch Group and a contributor for the Independent Center, joins us to explain.

 

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